세계 질서 변화에 적응-금융에 있어서 지정학적 위험관리6단계(23.3月)/Robin Deutsch外.Oliver Wyman연구소
소유주체명확화/
지정학적 위험에 따른 제시나리오 설정/
시나리오별 우선순위에 따른 영향 평가/
대처방안마련 시물레이션/
통합적인 스트레스테스트,계획 및 운영
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=Adapting to A Changing World Order - Six Steps To Manage Geopolitical Risk In Financial Services=
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the importance of a pervasive geopolitical risk management framework for financial institutions (FIs), given the partly unexpected second and third order impacts many had to manage through. Market expectations of other potential geopolitical shifts have become elevated, and possible scenarios range widely. Regulation often follows such expectations. As FIs have started to do for climate risk, the management of geopolitical risk requires a horizontal approach that spans across various vertical risk stripes that FIs usually manage themselves to.
To date, progress on systematic management of geopolitical risks has been slow in Financial Services, and responses are often ad hoc through “crisis coordination rooms” once a geopolitical event actually occurs.
This short paper lays out six “no regrets” steps that FIs can take now to effectively integrate the management of geopolitical risks into their broader strategic planning and risk management:
1. Define ownership for geopolitical risk
2. Identify geopolitical risks and design scenarios
3. Conduct impact assessments for priority scenarios
4. Define mitigants, develop playbooks and run simulations
5. Integrate into stress testing, planning, and steering
6. Manage using Early Warning Indicator dashboards