상품가격과 달러화의 관계변화(23-4-13)/Boris Hofmann外.BIS
최근 미달러화와 상품가격은 같은방향으로 움직이고 있는데 과거의 정반대의 통계적 패턴과 비교돤다
최근금융쇼크같은 잠정적인 요인과 미국의 에너지 순수출국으로의 등장과 같은 구조적인 요인의 결합으로 보인다
수출업자에게는 유리한 상황이지만 수입물가상승으로 스태그플레이션효과로 거시경제금융안정성에 어려운 도전을 주고있다.
=The changing nexus between commodity prices and the dollar: causes and implications=
Key takeaways
• Commodity prices and the US dollar have moved in tandem recently, in contrast to their usual statistical pattern of moving in opposite directions.
• The causes of the change in the relationship are partly temporary, such as the unusual combination of recent shocks, and partly structural, such as the United States’ emergence as a net energy exporter.
• The change in the nexus compounds the stagflationary effects of higher commodity prices for commodity importers, while its implications for commodity exporters are more ambiguous.
• A lasting change in the nexus could create more difficult challenges for macro-financial stability frameworks, particularly in commodity-importing economies.