대러시아제재는 전쟁과 우크라이나민간인에 대한 공격 둘 다를 중단시키지 못하고 있으나
푸틴의 영토적 확장 목적을 봉쇄하고 러시아의 수입비용을 비효율적으로 상승시키고 있고 우크라 재건비용재원으로
동결된 러시아 중앙은행의 보유 외환을 몰수하고있다.
그러나 제재받는 러시아뿐만 아니라 제재하는 서방국가들의 정치경제적 비용도 커지고 있으므로
제재의 지속성을 유지하기 위해서는 서방국가 국내적으로 보조금이나 세금감면같은 인센티브가 필요하다.
=Economic sanctions against Russia: How effective? How durable?=
Economic sanctions by Western democracies against Russia have not stopped the war and attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Together with continued economic and military support for Ukraine, however, sanctions are blocking Russian president Vladimir Putin from achieving his territorial objectives. Sanctions have contributed to a sharp compression of Russian imports; forced Russia’s military and industry to source from more costly and inefficient suppliers at home and abroad; and slowly begun to squeeze Russian government finances. The G7 countries must sustain and augment their efforts, including by confiscating frozen reserves of the Central Bank of Russia to help fund Ukraine’s reconstruction. G7 policymakers need to derive lessons from the current crisis about the utility of sanctions in conflicts between major powers. Maintaining coherent and coordinated sanctions against large and powerful target countries is critical for the effectiveness and durability of the policy. Deploying sanctions against such rivals also requires a long-term commitment to the implementation and enforcement of the trade and finance restrictions. Sanctions impose costs on both the target country and those imposing the sanctions, so Western policymakers need to offset those costs via domestic support or tax relief to sustain political support over time for sanctions in big power conflicts.